According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 29th, despite inflation expectations rising above 5%. This suggests that markets are pricing in a recession, impacting interest rates and bond markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets are currently pricing in a recession as evidenced by a 65 basis points drop in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks, despite rising inflation rates of over 4% in the 1 and 3-month annualized metrics. This unusual trend where interest rates are falling while inflation is increasing is indicative of significant market stress and could influence trading strategies focused on bond markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve reported a -$77.6 billion operating loss in 2024, following a -$114.3 billion loss in 2023. Since Q4 2022, the cumulative operating losses have reached -$224.4 billion. This significant financial strain may impact monetary policy decisions and market conditions, influencing trading strategies across currency and bond markets.

According to Omkar Godbole, the US two-year yield decreased by 8 basis points after the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision. This movement indicates a market reaction to the Fed's policy stance, potentially affecting short-term interest rates and bond markets.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, the trajectory of US Treasury yields is uncertain, with potential for decline during recessions as historically observed, or an increase due to growing fiscal debt concerns. This uncertainty presents a critical consideration for traders monitoring bond markets and macroeconomic indicators.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, bond vigilantes are actively monitoring fiscal sustainability, which is currently a key focus for bond markets. This heightened scrutiny may influence interest rates and the overall bond market dynamics. (Source: @Andre_Dragosch)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Government's debt to asset ratio has reached 6.4 times, which is more than 10 times larger than what is considered acceptable for a public company. This situation suggests significant financial risk and potential instability, impacting investor confidence and potentially affecting bond markets and interest rates.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, a recent bullish read on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is positively influencing bond markets, suggesting an initial correction. The Producer Price Index (PPI), expected tomorrow, is anticipated to be the next market mover. Van de Poppe advises traders to hold and be patient with their altcoin investments, indicating potential market shifts. This insight is crucial for traders focusing on altcoins, as it highlights the importance of macroeconomic indicators in cryptocurrency trading.

According to @KobeissiLetter, by 2025, $9.2 trillion of US government debt will mature or need refinancing, representing 25.4% of the total $36.2 trillion debt. This significant volume of maturing debt is identified as a key factor driving the recent increase in interest rates. The refinancing requirement poses substantial liquidity and fiscal management challenges, impacting bond markets and potentially influencing investor strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, in 2025, $9.2 trillion of US debt will mature or need refinancing, representing 25.4% of the total $36.2 trillion debt. This significant maturity volume is a key factor driving rising interest rates, impacting bond markets and overall economic conditions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has increased by 115 basis points since the start of rate cuts up to mid-January. As $9.2 trillion of government debt matures this year, the markets are preparing for significant refinancing challenges. A substantial portion of this debt was initially borrowed at lower interest rates, which may lead to increased costs for refinancing and impact bond markets.